Gold, Oil Evening Analysis: Path to Rate Cuts Set, Economic Recovery Difficult

Gold Market:

Recently, international gold prices have continued to reach new highs. Analysts have pointed out that factors such as central bank buying, rising U.S. debt, and the potential peak of the U.S. dollar have pushed gold into a new bullish phase. Historically, whenever the market enters a period of concern over debt sustainability, currency devaluation, and debt monetization, particularly when the U.S. debt ratio rises, it tends to drive up gold prices.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recently stated that the direction of the bank to reduce borrowing costs is clear, but the speed of the reduction is yet to be determined, and more significant measures may be taken in the future. Although the ECB policymakers have not given specific opinions on the future path of rate cuts, investors still expect the ECB to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate down to 2% by mid-2025.

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Technical Analysis: Gold prices closed up 1.07% yesterday (October 22nd), continuing to set new historical highs. The current trend in gold prices somewhat reflects the saying "the bold eat while the timid starve." It is important to remind that one should not go against the trend, nor should they arbitrarily guess the top.

Crude Oil Market:

The renowned investment bank Goldman Sachs stated yesterday that, on one hand, the tense situation between Israel and Iran has not affected the crude oil supply in the region, and the geopolitical risk premium is limited. On the other hand, the spare production capacity of OPEC+ oil-producing countries is high. Given the moderate oversupply of global crude oil and the substantial spare capacity of major oil-producing countries, the average oil price for 2025 is expected to be $76 per barrel.

Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, stated during the Singapore International Energy Week conference that the mainstream market view is that even if global crude oil demand growth stops at some point, the overall demand will not suddenly drop but will enter a long period of stability. Based on this forecast, there is reason to believe that global crude oil demand can still exceed 10 million barrels per day by 2050.

Technical Analysis: Oil prices rebounded significantly by 2.19% yesterday, with the high point briefly breaking through the moving average system, but it failed to hold above it at the close. The daily moving average system has formed a death cross, making today's trend critical - if it cannot go up, it will go down. Overall, the possibility of going down is somewhat greater.