In the golden autumn of October 2024,the price of oil once again became a hot topic on the streets and alleys.The news of the decline in international oil prices had just arrived,but the price of refined oil products in China quietly rose,a contrast that left many car owners and consumers exclaiming "can't understand".

I.Why does China's refined oil price "march to the beat of a different drum" when international oil prices fall?

The twists and turns of international oil prices always affect the hearts of countless people.Here we are,on October 24,2024,when international oil prices fell again,with the price of U.S.crude oil dropping by 1.67% to $70.54 per barrel,and the price of Brent crude oil also fell by 1.08% to $74.76 per barrel.However,while international oil prices were falling,the price of refined oil products in China "marched to the beat of a different drum",with both gasoline and diesel prices rising.

The reasons behind this are not complicated.International oil prices are just one factor affecting the price of refined oil products in China,not the decisive one.The rise and fall of refined oil prices in China are also influenced by various factors such as China's supply and demand relationship,monetary policy,and tax policy.In the case of falling international oil prices,if there is a shortage of refined oil products in China,or if monetary policy tightens leading to increased capital costs,then the price of refined oil products in China could rise.

In addition,the adjustment of refined oil prices in China is also subject to the constraints of the "floor price" and "ceiling price".When international oil prices fall below a certain level,the price of refined oil products in China will not continue to decrease,but will remain at a relatively stable level.This is mainly to protect the interests of China's oil industry and avoid excessive competition leading to industry losses.

II.As the price adjustment window approaches,where will the oil price trend go?

As the new round of refined oil price adjustment window approaches,consumers' attention to the trend of oil prices is also increasing.According to statistics,after a 10-working-day statistical period,the price of gasoline was raised by 90 yuan/ton,and the price of diesel was raised by 85 yuan/ton.Converted into the price per liter,the prices of 92# gasoline,95# gasoline,and 0# diesel all increased by 0.07 yuan.

So,after the price adjustment window opens,what will the trend of oil prices be?This is actually a complex question,as the rise and fall of oil prices are influenced by a variety of factors.Looking at international oil prices,the trend in the coming period is still full of uncertainty.Geopolitical situations,global economic recovery,monetary policy and other factors may all affect oil prices.

From the perspective of China's situation,the supply and demand relationship of China's refined oil market and factors such as tax policy will also affect oil prices.If China's oil industry continues to be in a state of supply not meeting demand,or if there are adjustments to tax policy,then oil prices could continue to rise.Of course,we must not overlook the impact of market psychology on oil prices.In situations where oil prices fluctuate significantly,consumer expectations and speculative behavior can both influence oil prices.Therefore,when predicting oil price trends,we need to consider a variety of factors to draw relatively accurate conclusions.

III.The Deeper Logic Behind Oil Price Fluctuations and Market Impact

Fluctuations in oil prices are not merely an economic issue; they are a complex problem involving politics,society,and other aspects.From an economic perspective,oil price volatility has far-reaching effects on the energy industry,transportation,industrial production,and other fields.Rising oil prices lead to increased energy costs,which in turn raise production costs and the prices of goods,impacting economic growth and inflation.

From a political standpoint,oil price volatility is often closely related to geopolitical situations.Conflicts and wars sparked by some countries to compete for oil resources can impact oil prices.In addition,some countries adjust their oil policies to influence oil prices to achieve their political goals.

From a social perspective,oil price fluctuations also have a significant impact on the lives of ordinary consumers.Rising oil prices lead to increased transportation costs,affecting people's travel modes and consumption habits.Moreover,oil price volatility also has certain effects on environmental protection and energy transition.When oil prices are high,people may be more inclined to use clean energy and energy-saving products,thereby promoting the process of energy transition and environmental protection.

Oil price fluctuations are a complex issue involving multiple aspects.After understanding the logic behind the rise and fall of oil prices,we may be able to view the impacts of oil price volatility more rationally.Both consumers and investors need to remain calm and rational,avoiding blind following or excessive speculation.

In the days to come,as the global economy recovers and geopolitical situations change,oil prices may continue to fluctuate.But no matter what,we should maintain a normal mindset and face the challenges and opportunities brought by the rise and fall of oil prices rationally.